Showing posts with label France. Show all posts
Showing posts with label France. Show all posts

Monday, July 1, 2024

NEWS: Update on the French Elections

So, it looks like, come this nice Monday morning, 1 July 2024, that the fascist RN (Rassemblement National) has a lead in the French election first round, according to the polls. They beat the New Popular Front by around 33.5% to 28.1%. The polls are exit polls, mainly operated by major French media companies. Thus, not only can the ruling class influence people through their media they can also use these polls as data, they are not scientific, but they seem like they are. And who is it who has in recent years given the far right a more pleasing, media friendly, gloss? It is chiefly a billionaire who owns a lot of media industries: Vincent Bolloré, CEO of Bolloré: - 

Vincent Bollore. Thesupermat,
CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Jean Luc Melenchon gave a good speech after the results, quite restrained for him. What does this result mean? In a sense, many of the stated policies of the RN are filched from the left, like the opposition to the pension ‘reform’, and these are popular, so it does not mean, despite appearances, that the French people have suddenly turned far right, many just hate the ‘extreme centre’ of Macron. On the other hand, they have donated a victory de facto to the far right. Do they know this? Like Marc Bloch said in WWII, they either know, or they are hypnotized.

To their shame, none of the major republican right-wing groups, or the Macronistes, specifically endorsed the left NPF in the horse-trading for the 577 constituency seats if it came to three-way races, of which there are about 300, they just asked not to support the RN. Meanwhile although this was the ruse of the boss Macron, the sub-parties (Modem, Horizon) did not agree and were going to block both right and left 'extremes', helping the RN of course. Melenchon sensibly put forward as the policy of the NPF, that they would drop out as candidates if necessary to defeat the RN, some integrity from the man the press labels as the 'firebrand' of the 'hard left'. 

It looks as though the CAC 40 is fairly happy, perhaps surmising that the RN will probably not achieve an absolute majority. But it is not over yet, there is the second round to go. And a National Assembly in a cohabitation with an opposed president, balanced so it cannot get anything done, is not good. It is possible that Macron is expecting a caretaker government of his choice if a stalemate occurs, so he becomes an effective ‘technical dictator’.

The French political landscape is confusing because there are so many names of groupings, old and new, and affiliations and alliances. 

Sunday, June 16, 2024

NEWS: Macron’s election gamble creates general bemusement and political farce in France

Politics happens in time, not in space. So, politics can be either progressive or reactionary. But like most other capitalist western democracies, politics is framed in the bourgeois media as a Left, Centre, Right array, and in practice this has become a political cartel that prevents any genuine democratic progress.

The French regularly get the far-right thrust at them as a threat in the media, and in European elections the electorate have now vented their anger at the incumbent politicians and voted for the most anti-EU seeming party, which is the far-right of Marine Le Pen, now called National Rally (Rassemblement national, RN, the old National Front or le Front national). They obviously don’t care that much about Europe and just want any party that defends their interests, which are suffering under the exorbitant cost of living. Not that the far-right have said anything serious about defending the interests of, for instance, the farmers, who have a lot of gripes, and what they do say is all very vague, and they have no manifesto. But despite this, they won a big victory in the European elections, gaining 31% of the vote, pushing president Macron’s party into relative insignificance. - Many media pundits abroad were now certain of further far-right success and enthusiastically projected the Euro voting figures immediately onto the national French vote, so that Le Pen’s party became the leaders of France, with young Jordan Bardella as PM, who was previously only known for robotically railing against ‘rapist immigrants’ and having a sort of blank expression. He has suddenly become the telegenic, nice fascist.

Reacting to this, the centrist pro-business president Macron, in a fit of hubris, suddenly called an election for July 7, conveniently just before the Olympic games were due to start in Paris. We are sure he sees this a masterful move, but it appears to be vanity. The election that this move entails would only be about the National Assembly, called the ‘elections législatives’, and the post of prime minister, but not the presidency; Macron’s position was safe for another couple of years. However, whoever won the election, if they were not in his party, would have to deal with him as president, unless the result was so opposed to him that he would have to step down. He was obviously gambling with the fate of the country, and for some reason, unconcerned about the far-right.

The biggest response throughout France, according to the media, was surprised bemusement, but tinged with trepidation that this could allow the far right to get a real political foothold. What could be the president’s tactics here, they wondered? The suppositions were that he wanted to ‘clarify things’, because currently his centrist party, Renaissance as it was now called, had no real majority in the assembly and he could not push through his unpopular ‘reforms’, such as making people work longer for their pensions. Maybe he had been lying in wait for just this moment, hoping to get his revenge, seething in silence.

The French CAC 40 stock market started to fall. Then cue a big round of transparently selfish and panicky manoeuvrings on the part of all varieties of politicians, left, right, and centre, which quickly descended into farce. Probably because of the short time to the election date everything political was happening like a speeded-up film, which gave it a highly comedic aspect and threw into sharp relief all the opportunism.

Eric Ciotti, president of the rightist The Republicans party (Les Républicains, LR) suddenly sought an alliance with the now apparently to be taken seriously fascists, the RN. He appeared smiling like a naughty little goblin looking out of the party’s HQ window, or some window or other. Apparently, he had locked himself in when he heard about the uproar in his party that his proposal had caused. They wanted to oust him, but they could not open the door and had to go away sheepishly. They got in eventually, finding a spare key, but he was nowhere to be found. Maybe he hid up the chimney? Later, a legal decision over whether he could be ejected was won by Ciotti. He was stuck there, perhaps president of not much anymore. This man wanted to ally his party, formerly normal conservatives, with the RN, but Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella have not yet published a manifesto (did I say that?). They are probably hoping to get away with this slight omission by just voicing some blurry statements. Curiously, they want to nationalize the motorways of France, perhaps seeking to emulate German autobahns - ‘invented by the Nazis’? But at the same time to privatise national media outlets.  Nationalise! Privatise! – that makes sense. They obsess most over immigration, with tacked on concern about the cost of living and security, but also linking these things to immigration, both legal and illegal. In the recent past they wanted to give French nationals preference in jobs, benefits and social housing, which would probably involve trying to change the constitution and would be contrary to European rules, and, yes, to throw out immigrants who were unemployed for more than a year, and to protect the police against complaints against them when they commit violence - probably against immigrants, again. Immigrants! Immigrants! If you have any doubts about what a vote for the far-right really entails this article quote explains it clearly:

“…in the European parliament, where Bardella has held a seat since 2019. He and fellow RN MEPs voted against the recognition of slavery as a crime against humanity, opposed resolutions on the rescue of migrants at sea and on reducing the wage gap between men and women. They did not support proposals to allocate a budget to combat violence against women or in favour of the EU becoming a zone of LGBTQIA+ freedom. In the French parliament many of them have opposed a constitutional amendment to guarantee free and legal access to abortion.

They pretend to care about social justice and the wellbeing of the poorest, but their votes demonstrate their lack of interest in addressing economic inequality. They have voted against increasing the minimum wage, against indexing salaries to inflation and against increasing student grants. They also opposed freezing prices on rent and essential goods.”

From <https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/19/macron-gamble-fate-french-people-far-right>

Marine Le Pen recently welcomed the fact that the historian and lawyer Serge Klarsfeld, defender of Jewish deportees from France, who declared that in the event of a choice between France Unbowed and RN he would vote for the RN, which he decided had now reformed and supported the Jews and Israel, banishing any thought of the fascists possible trickery, given the far right’s unblemished history in this regard (not). The accusation was of the left’s anti-Semitism of course. So, both the far-right and Macron’s centrists at least agreed on this lowest stooping of principles, attack those you disagree with for anti-Semitism whenever you can, whether it is true or not, and regardless of how it degrades the meaning of this term (in this sense, the boot is on the other foot and they are being the anti-Semites); Macron ally Gabriel Attal, the French PM, interviewed on France 2 TV, had also made similar accusations about the left. Meanwhile, Marion Marechal, whose auntie is Marine Le Pen, and of whose party Reconquest she is vice president, and which apparently hates immigrants even more, suggested on TV that they might join with Le Pen, but then the even more right-wing Eric Zemmour, its leader, the next day chucked her out of the party.

On the left there was almost as much ridiculousness, but not quite. NUPES and France Unbowed (La France insoumise, LFI), the Greens, the Socialist Party (PS), and the French Communist Party (PCF) etc, all got together to form the New Popular Front (NPF) against the fascists; they buried their many hatchets, sort of, but Jean Luc Melenchon was not very good at keeping quiet, and the media so wanted to see a fight to balance the rightists one, as was their duty to their class. They found the notoriously ginger left politician, Adrien Quatennens, who had been charged a while ago for domestic violence, lurking around, and a couple of old comrades of Melenchon who he now disliked. Quatennens had to withdraw as a candidate of France Unbowed in Le Nord, to be replaced by Aurélien Le Coq, national co-leader of the LFI youth organization, but also apparently Amy Bah, a feminist, maintained her candidacy after the withdrawal, also under the banner of NPF (?). By now the French electorate was probably fed up with all the name changes of parties, and wise to the fact that they had in them all the same old politicians. Then who should pop up but Francoise Hollande, the ex-president, who was going to also throw his hat into the ring, no longer content with almost destroying his Socialist Party, due to its lack of socialism, he now wanted to attach his obvious abilities to the new alliance at this crucial moment.

In this situation, as a PCF member, I agree with the forming of an alliance, but I cannot help but be wary of the wisdom of forming left popular fronts from the point of view of the communists joining. It seems to me that such an amalgamation waters down and renders invisible the specific truths that the communists can give to the political debate, so that the PCF is in danger of seeming to have the same positions as the socialists, for instance, given that for some time now the Socialist Party has been exposed for what they are, bourgeois, pseudo socialists. On the other hand, to join against the populist fascists is necessary and urgent. The question is, therefore, how can the communists keep their identity but still support the left? If this left succeeds in winning against RN, they will inevitably soon be seen like Macron’s centrists, to be eventually rejected, including the communists, this time leaving only the RN fascists as seeming to be the most radical option. On the other hand, if the left loses with the communists aboard, the communists also lose with them, and for the same reasons.

It of course all depends on what will happen, but for the communists it seems to be a no-win situation whichever scenario of these. Not joining NPF would probably not harm the NPF’s popularity in the future election and retain the uniqueness of the communist argument, keeping its powder dry, so to speak. If RN were to win against NPF, then would this be the fault of the communist’s non-participation, splitting the vote of the left? Possibly. To avoid this the communists could have called for their votes to go to the NPF, but without joining it, keeping an arm’s length so to speak. This, however, has not happened.

 

 

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